Dynamic Model for Assisted Reproductive Technology Outcome Prediction

Abstract Infertility is becoming a growing issue in almost all countries. Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) are recent development in treating infertility that give hope to the infertile couples. However, the pregnancy rates achieved with the aid of ART is considerably low, as success in ART is not only based on the treatment but also on many other controllable and uncontrollable biological, social, and environmental features. High expenditures and painful process of ART cycles are the two major barriers for opting for ART. Moreover, ART treatments are not covered by any health insurance schemes. Computational prediction models could be used to improve the success rate by predicting the treatment outcome, before the start of an ART cycle. This may suggest the couples and the doctors to decide on the next course of action i.e. either to opt for ART or opt for correcting determinants or quit the ART. With the intension to improve the success rate of ART by providing decision support system to the physicians as well to the patients before entering into the treatment this research work proposes a dynamic model for ART outcome prediction using Machine Learning (ML) techniques. The proposed dynamic model is partially implemented with the help of an ensemble of heterogeneous incremental classifier and its performance is compared with state-of-art classifiers such as Naïve Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF), K-star etc.,using ART dataset. Performance of the model is evaluated with various metrics such as accuracy, Precision Recall Curve (PRC), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), F-Measure etc., However, ROC cure area is taken as the chief metric. Evaluation results shows that the model achieves the performance with the ROC area value of 94.1 %.

Kinetic characterization and modeling of a microalgae consortium isolated from landfill leachate under a high CO2 concentration in a bubble column photobioreactor

BACKGROUND: The determination of kinetic parameters and the development of mathematical models are of great interest to predict the growth of microalgae, the consumption of substrate and the design of photobioreactors focused on CO2 capture. However, most of the models in the literature have been developed for CO2 concentrations below 10%. RESULTS: A nonaxenic microalgal consortium was isolated from landfill leachate in order to study its kinetic behavior using a dynamic model. The model considered the CO2 mass transfer from the gas phase to the liquid phase and the effect of light intensity, assimilated nitrogen concentration, ammonium concentration and nitrate concentration. The proposed mathematical model was adjusted with 13 kinetic parameters and validated with a good fit obtained between experimental and simulated data. CONCLUSIONS: Good results were obtained, demonstrating the robustness of the proposed model. The assumption in the model of DIC inhibition in the ammonium and nitrate uptakes was correct, so this aspect should be considered when evaluating the kinetics with microalgae with high inlet CO2 concentrations.

Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 by SEIR+ CAQ dynamic model / 中华流行病学杂志

Objectives@#Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 epidemics.@*Methods@#Based on SEIR dynamic model, considering the COVID-19 transmission mechanism, infection spectrum and prevention and control procedures, we developed SEIR+ CAQ dynamic model to fit the frequencies of laboratory confirmed cases obtained from the government official websites. The data from January 20, 2020 to February 7, 2020 were used to fit the model, while the left data between February 8-12 were used to evaluate the quality of forecasting.@*Results@#According to the cumulative number of confirmed cases between January 29 to February 7, the fitting bias of SEIR+ CAQ model for overall China (except for cases of Hubei province), Hubei province (except for cases of Wuhan city) and Wuhan city was less than 5%. For the data of subsequent 5 days between February 8 to 12, which were not included in the model fitting, the prediction biases were less than 10%. Regardless of the cases diagnosed by clinical examines, the numbers of daily emerging cases of China (Hubei province not included), Hubei Province (Wuhan city not included) and Wuhan city reached the peak in the early February. Under the current strength of prevention and control, the total number of laboratory- confirmed cases in overall China will reach 80 417 till February 29, 2020, respectively.@*Conclusions@#The proposed SEIR+ CAQ dynamic model fits and forecasts the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia well and provides evidence for decision making.

Prevention effectiveness of the "Internet Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" among MSM in Guangzhou: a dynamic model of infectious disease / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To evaluate the effect of the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" among MSM in Guangzhou, during 2010-2017, using a dynamic compartmental model.@*Methods@#A dynamic compartmental model was developed to describe the HIV situation among MSM in Guangzhou. This model was parameterized on data from published literature or surveillance programs from the Guangzhou CDC. The Matlab 7.0 software was used for coding and analysis on collected data. HIV prevalence was analyzed among MSM under the status quo data and estimated the impact by the "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project.@*Results@#HIV prevalence would have increased to 22.75% in 2017, and the total number of new HIV infections would have been 11 038, from 2010 to 2017, using the data status quo. Under the Guangzhou "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project, the prevalence of HIV among MSM from 2010 to 2017 was estimated to be 8.44%, 9.68%, 10.65%, 11.34%, 11.73%, 11.83%, 11.71% and 11.43% in Guangzhou, which were similar to the surveillance data. The total number of new infections in the past 8 years under the "Internet Plus" scenario was estimated to be 4 009. The "Internet Plus" program would have prevented 7 029 (63.68%) new infections during 2010-2017 as compared to the number, status quo.@*Conclusions@#The fitting result of dynamic compartmental model seemed more reasonable, which was applicable to predict HIV epidemic among MSM in Guangzhou, suggesting that the increase of HIV prevalence had been curbed since the "Internet Plus" project which was launched in 2010, and the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" had achieved the purpose as planned, epidemiologically.

A dynamic model of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiangsu Province based on EV71 vaccination / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To establish a dynamic model of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiangsu Province, analyze the epidemic of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiangsu, predict the trend of this disease and simulate the effect of EV71 vaccination on the control of hand foot and mouth disease caused by EV71. Methods A compartmental model of hand foot and mouth disease was constructed.A group of differential equations was established. The incidence data of hand foot and mouth disease was used to fit the model and calculate the basic reproduction number of this disease in Jiangsu. Then, vaccination was added to the model and the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease under different vaccination coverage rates was simulated. Results The basic reproduction numbers of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiangsu between 2013 and 2016 were 1.31 (IQR:0.99-1.48), 1.37 (IQR:0.97-1.52), 1.34 (IQR:1.00-1.61) and 1.38 (IQR:1.00-1.76) , respectively. With the increase of immunization coverage of EV71 vaccine, the cases of hand foot and mouth disease caused by EV71 decreased accordingly. When the annual immunization rate of EV71 vaccine was maintained at a high level (75%), the annual incidence of hand foot and mouth disease caused by EV71 after 5 years reduced to 10% of that in the same year when there was no vaccination. Conclusions The epidemic trend of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiangsu is stable from 2013 to 2016. Vaccination plays an important role in controlling hand foot and mouth disease caused by EV71.

Research Progress in Cell-Culture Models of Blood-Brain Barrier / 中国药学杂志

Studies of blood-brain barrier (BBB) play an important role in the R&D of new drugs for neurological disorders. Cellculture models of blood-brain barrier are helpful to study the functions and biological properties of the major BBB components, including brain microvascular endothelial cells, astrocytes, and pericytes, observe and analyze different components' reactions during the drug treatment, optimize the dosing progress, and reduce toxicity. According to the properties of individual BBB components, we summarized several widely used in vitro models of BBB, including monolayer models, co-culture models and the newly developed microfluidic-based models. By comparing their advantages and disadvantages, we provided suggestions on the selection of BBB models according to different research purposes.

Dynamic Model on Determining the Appropriate Premium Rate for Basic Medical Insurance of Urban Employee and the Calculation on Reduction to Current Premium Rate for Basic Medical Insurance of Urban Employee during the Period of the 13th Five-year Plan / 中国卫生经济

Objective:Study the dynamic model on determining the appropriate premium rate for basic medical insurance of urban employee(BMlUE) and the calculation of reduction to current premium rate for BMIUE in the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan.Methods:It developed a quantitative model to explore the objective.Results:There were 8 parameters all determined the appropriate premium for BMIUE.Conclusion:The results of calculation showed that in the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan,the current premium rate for BMIUE could be cut from 8％ into 7.9％ if keeping the current financial institutional arrangement named individual account and social pooling constant.If cancelling individual account,the current premium rate for BMIUE could be cut from 8％ into 7％.

Health economic evaluation of bivalent human papilloma virus vaccine in China: based on the dynamic model / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#This study aims to evaluate the prevention effect and cost-effectiveness of a prophylactic bivalent human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine.@*Methods@#A multiple health status dynamic model was developed, including natural history of diseases and prevention strategies. We built 19 prevention strategies including visual inspection with acetic acid/lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI) and/or 3 does prophylactic bivalent HPV vaccine administered to adolescent girls at the age of 15 years old every year under the assumption that vaccine coverage and screening coverage were 70%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), optimal price of 3 does vaccine and cost-effectiveness frontier of these strategies were analyzed compared with no-intervention. The ICER threshold is 152 087 CNY.@*Results@#Compared with no-intervention, Routine vaccination reduced the incidence of cervical cancer by 69.5%, superior to 5 strategies including VIA/VILI screening only. The range of effect was between 9.0% and 69.2%, and the effect of strategy increased significantly with the increase of screening frequency. Combination vaccination with screening at ages of 35 reduced the incidence of cervical cancer by 72.0%, and the effect increased with the increase of screening frequency. Combination vaccination with screening every 3 years between (35-64) years old reduced the incidence by 89.4%. Compared with no-intervention, the ICER of combination vaccination with screening twice between 35 years and 64 years was 121 292 CNY/life-year, which was cost-effective. The price of vaccine had a significant impact on the ICER of the strategy; when the vaccine price was less than 600 CNY, only routine vaccination or supplementary vaccination between 16-39 years old after routine vaccination was cost-effective; when the vaccine price was less than 1 200 CNY, supplementary vaccination between 16-19 years old plus VIA/VILI was cost-effective.@*Conclusion@#Ther prevention strategy was cost-effective, which could effectively reduce the incidence of cervical cancer by implementation of HPV vaccination combined with VIA/VILI in suitable aging females.

Effect of adaptive motion on cyclic fatigue resistance of a nickel titanium instrument designed for retreatment

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the cyclic fatigue resistance of the ProTaper Universal D1 file (Dentsply Maillefer) under continuous and adaptive motion. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Forty ProTaper Universal D1 files were included in this study. The cyclic fatigue tests were performed using a dynamic cyclic fatigue testing device, which had an artificial stainless steel canal with a 60° angle of curvature and a 5 mm radius of curvature. The files were randomly divided into two groups (Group 1, Rotary motion; Group 2, Adaptive motion). The time to failure of the files were recorded in seconds. The number of cycles to failure (NCF) was calculated for each group. The data were statistically analyzed using Student's t-test. The statistical significant level was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS: The cyclic fatigue resistance of the adaptive motion group was significantly higher than the rotary motion group (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Within the limitations of the present study, the ‘Adaptive motion’ significantly increased the resistance of the ProTaper Universal D1 file to cyclic facture.

Dinámica de flujo computacional en aneurismas cerebrales / Computational fluid dynamics in intracranial aneurysm

Los aneurismas cerebrales son lesiones arteriales caracterizadas por el debilitamiento y la dilatación de un segmento del vaso sanguíneo. Representan una gran amenaza para la vida del paciente debido al riesgo de ruptura, trombo-embolias o compresión del tejido adyacente. Los aneurismas cerebrales rotos son la causa más común de la hemorragia subaracnoidea y puede causar una significativa morbilidad y mortalidad. Con el fin de entender el comportamiento hemodinámico de los aneurismas cerebrales se han desarrollado estudios computacionales que simulan las condiciones y propiedades de dichas lesiones en modelos virtuales similares a la realidad; la mayoría de ellos se realizan en un sistema experimental conocido como dinámica de fluido computacional. Este artículo presenta una revisión del estado de la técnica aplicada a hemodinámica de flujo en aneurismas y pretende recopilar los avances más importantes del método que servirán en un futuro, para el desarrollo de una herramienta de apoyo al diagnóstico y tratamiento de estas dolencias.

Intracranial aneurysms are lesions of the arterial wall characterized by weakening and dilation of an arterial segment. These lesions are a major threat to the patient’s life because of the risk of rupture, thrombo-emboli, or compression of adjacent tissue. The rupture of an intracranial aneurysm causes subarachnoid hemorrhage associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. In order to understand the intracranial aneurysm hemodynamics, it has been developed computational studies, which simulate the boundary conditions and properties of these lesions in virtual models (models similar to reality), most of them are made in a computational fluid dynamic model (CFD). This study reviews the state of arts of the CFD technique applied to the aneurysm flow hemodynamics that claims to collect the most important progress of the method that will be useful in the tool’s developments that will become a rely on a diagnosis and treatment tool.

Study on the Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic Model of Nisoldipine Controlled-release Patches in Spon-taneously Hypertensive Rats / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE:To establish the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic(PK-PD) model of Nisoldipine controlled-release patches(NCRP)in spontaneously hypertensive rats(SHR). METHODS:SHR were randomized into a patch(NCRP)group and a tablet(Nisoldipine tablets)group,with 6 rats in each group. The microdialysis probes were implanted in SHR. Each rat was given 5 mg nisoldipine. Plasma microdialysate was collected within 36 h after administration. HPLC was adopted to determine the plasma concentration of nisoldipine,and WinNonlin 5.3 was employed to calculate Pharmacokinetic parameters. With heart rate and blood pressure as pharmacodynamic indexes,PK-PD model study was conducted. RESULTS:Vs. nisoldipine tablets,NCRP has con-trolled release effect. The relationship between NCRP drug effect and effect-site concentration met the Sigmoid-Emax model. The main parameters of the PK-PD model for heart rate and systolic blood pressure were as follows as Emax of (2.65 ± 0.06) and (10.71 ± 0.87),EC50 of (83.65 ± 35.25) and (1.29 ± 0.26) ng/ml,γ of (0.83 ± 0.91) and (1.2 ± 0.35),Keo of (0.37 ± 0.53) and (0.91±0.24)h-1. CONCLUSIONS:PK-PD model of NCRP in SHR has been established successfully.

Dynamic analysis of transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus / 军事医学

To explore the transmission patterns and advise public health departments , this paper establishes a dynamic model on the peculiarity of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and analyzes the dynamic feature of this type of bird flu trans-mission between humans and birds .Results show that this type of bird flu can be controled , and that closing down live-bird markets is the most effective method .

Interaction of carbohydrate derivatives and sodium-glucose cotransporters 2 by molecular dynamic simulation / 中草药

Objective: To investigate the interactions between carbohydrate derivatives and sodium-glucose cotransporters 2 (SGLT2) using molecular dynamic (MD) method and to explore the mechanisms and structure-activity relationship of SGLT2 inhibitors. Methods: The homologous structure of SGLT2 was modeled, the GROMACS program was used to model eight structures, such as SGLT2, SGLT2-glucose compound, and SGLT2-carbohydrate compound. And the root mean square fluctuation (RMSF) of the key residues and ligands and the interaction energy between the ligands and SGLT2 was investigated by trajectory analysis. Results: The interaction energy calculated by MD method had the higher correlation with experimental results than that by molecular docking method. H80, K154, D158, and Y290 were the key residues involved in the interaction, N75 and F453 were the important residues, and W291, Q295, and S393 might be the auxiliary residues. The ligands had a relatively consistent conformation, and fragments A and C played the more important roles in receptor binding. And the size, rigidity, and polarity increasing could elevate the bonding strength. Conclusion: MD simulation results could display the good performance of the interaction between the ligands and SGLT2, and could give clear guidance for the design of new SGLT2 inhibitors.

Dynamic analysis on impacting during baseball batting / 医用生物力学

Objective By a thorough analysis of the baseball batting to provide a theoretical instruction for baseball players with a simple and efficient dynamic model. Method Based on the moment of impulse theory, the closed form linear equations were derived by the dynamic analysis of the hinged multi-rigid body model. The numerical results would be obtained after solving the equations. Results (1) The batting speeds have been obtained by the numerical calculation under various conditions of different initial speeds of the baseball and bat; (2) The knockout speeds of wood bats are much smaller than the aluminum ones; (3) The coefficient of restitution has the significant effect on the batting speeds, and has no effects on sweet spot and center of position. Conclusions The numerical results are consistent with the data of experiments in reference. The calculating procedure is easy for baseball coaches and players to understand and can be applied in the training of baseball batting directly.

Atención regionalizada del trauma: una propuesta metodológica desde la dinámica de sistemas / Regionalized trauma care: a methodological proposal from the system dynamics

Los estudios referentes al trauma conocidos se caracterizan por ser multicausales, pero al observar el impacto de las intervenciones sobre sus causas, se observa que no clarifican cuál es el camino más idóneo para su prevención y control. Objetivo: abordar el problema del trauma desde un enfoque integrador que facilite entender el fenómeno desde sus interrelaciones complejas. Metodología: aplicando la dinámica de sistemas planteada por Forrester para proponer un modelo dinámico que permita prever situaciones relacionadas con su revención y la atención, para plantear políticas públicas hacia la disminución de la incidencia y la mortalidad. El proceso incluyó los seis pasos de la dinámica de sistemas que permite entregar un modelo para el análisis de los escenarios actuales y posibles en su atención, basados en simulaciones del comportamiento del trauma, incluidas las variables de incidencia y prevención en interrelación con la atención prehospitalaria y hospitalaria. Resultados: fue posible la propuesta de escenario ideal en la atención del trauma planteada en la hipótesis dinámica formulada: “la atención oportuna del paciente indicado, en la institución adecuada, es garantía para la disminución de la letalidad por trauma.

Studies relating to trauma are mainly multicausal, but when we observe the impact of interventions on their causes, there is no clarity about the best way for prevention and control. Objetive: To approach the problem of trauma from its complex interrelationships. Methodology: using the system dynamics raised by Forrester to propose a dynamic model capable of predicting situations related to prevention and care, to raise public policies towards reducing the incidence and mortality. The process included six steps of the dynamics of systems to deliver model for the analysis of existing and potential scenarios in their care, based on simulations of the behavior of the trauma, including the incidence and prevention of variables in interaction with prehospital care and hospital. Results: the proposal was ideal in the care of trauma described in the dynamic scenario put "appropriate care of patient described in the appropate institution, is guaranteed to reduce the mortality for trauma".

Effect of Initial Substrate Concentration on Kinetics of Hydrogen Production by Photosynthetic Bacteria in Batch Culture / 中国生物工程杂志

The effect of initial substrate concentration on the growth,metabolic activities of Photosynthetic bacteria (PSB) in the process of hydrogen production is studied.The empirical relation of the initial substrate concentration to the specific growth rate,specific substrate consumption rate and specific hydrogen production rate of PSB are developed based on the modified Monod model.It is found that the results given by the model are well agreed with the experimental data in growth phase and stationary phase of PSB.Meanwhile,the optimal substrate concentration in the process of growth,metabolism and hydrogen production is 50 mmol/L.Furthermore,when the initial substrate concentration deviates 50 mmol/L,the activation of PSB is limited or inhibited,and the inhibiting effect is more prominent than the limiting effect.In addition,it is demonstrated that initial substrate concentration has little effect on the specific substrate consumption rate.

Transmission Dynamic Model for Echinococcosis granulosus:Establishment and Application / 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志

A dynamic model of disease can be used to quantitatively describe the pattern and characteristics of disease transmission, predict the disease status and evaluate the efficacy of control strategy.This review summarizes the basic transmission dynamic models of echinococcosis granulosus and their application.